Nigeria’s agricultural sector has returned to a trade deficit after recording surpluses for two consecutive years, with food import waivers and persistent insecurity identified as major factors behind the reversal.
According to The PUNCH, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria recorded an agricultural trade surplus of ₦740.27 billion in the first half of 2025 but posted a deficit of ₦56.13 billion during the corresponding period of 2026.
The figures represent a significant deterioration in the country’s agricultural trade balance, raising fresh concerns about local food production, export performance and the competitiveness of Nigerian farmers.
Agricultural exports reportedly fell by 33.28 per cent, dropping from ₦2.96 trillion in the first half of 2025 to ₦1.98 trillion in the same period of 2026.
Although agricultural imports also declined, the reduction was smaller. Imports fell by 8.5 per cent, from ₦2.22 trillion to ₦2.03 trillion, contributing to the shift from surplus to deficit.
Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Agricultural and Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, blamed some of the challenges on government policies that reduced import duties on selected food commodities, including rice and palm oil.
He warned that making imported food cheaper could put domestic producers at a disadvantage, discourage local investment and threaten jobs in the agricultural value chain.
Banjoko called for greater investment in local production and the development of Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones to improve processing capacity and strengthen Nigeria’s agricultural exports.
Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, also identified insecurity as a major obstacle to agricultural growth.
He explained that attacks on farming communities, kidnappings and displacement had forced some farmers to abandon their land, reducing output and limiting the supply of produce available for export.
Yusuf further highlighted the rising cost of fertilisers, agrochemicals, machinery and improved seedlings, urging the government to make agricultural inputs more affordable and explore minimum guaranteed prices to protect farmers against sharp market declines.
The development underscores the challenges facing Nigeria as it seeks to balance affordable food imports with the need to protect domestic farmers, expand agricultural production and improve food security.
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