Nigeria’s stock market could close 2026 on a strong note, with market capitalisation projected to surpass ₦200 trillion as investors anticipate the listing of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and assess the economic implications of the 2027 general elections.
Capital market analysts expect a combination of strong corporate earnings, improved investor confidence, increased liquidity and favourable economic conditions to sustain the equities market’s upward momentum.
Some analysts have projected that the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) All-Share Index could reach 280,000 points by the end of December, while annual market returns could exceed 57 per cent.
However, they cautioned that profit-taking, global economic developments and uncertainty surrounding future government policies could trigger market volatility.
Investors’ Wealth Rises by ₦62.76 Trillion
The Nigerian stock market has recorded significant growth in 2026, with investors’ wealth increasing by ₦62.76 trillion, representing an appreciation of approximately 60.47 per cent.
Market capitalisation rose from ₦99.376 trillion at the beginning of the year to ₦162.134 trillion as of the previous week.
Similarly, the NGX All-Share Index climbed from 155,613.03 points to 249,710.59 points over the same period.
Analysts attributed the performance to relative stability in the foreign exchange market, easing inflation, stronger corporate earnings, improved liquidity and renewed investor participation.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate to 23 per cent was also identified as one of the factors supporting market sentiment.
Dangote Refinery Listing Expected to Boost Market
The anticipated listing of shares in Dangote Petroleum Refinery is widely viewed by market analysts as a potential catalyst for further growth before the end of the year.
Sam Onukwue, immediate past chairman of the Association of Stockbroking Houses of Nigeria and managing director of Mega Equities Limited, said the refinery’s initial public offering had drawn funds away from the secondary equities market during October.
He expects trading activity to recover following the completion of the offering and believes the refinery’s eventual listing could push total market capitalisation beyond ₦200 trillion in December.
David Adonri, managing director of Highcap Securities Limited, offered an even more ambitious projection, suggesting that market capitalisation could reach ₦210 trillion by year-end.
Both analysts also projected that the All-Share Index could close the year around 280,000 points, provided negative market sentiment does not significantly weaken investor confidence.
Analyst Forecasts More Than 57% Annual Returns
Olatunde Amolegbe, immediate past president of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers and managing director of Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited, said he remained cautiously optimistic about the market’s prospects.
He projected a full-year return of approximately 57.65 per cent, while warning that investors could begin taking profits after the substantial gains recorded so far.
Amolegbe said companies with sustainable earnings, strong fundamentals, good corporate governance and attractive valuations were better positioned to withstand potential market corrections.
He identified inflationary pressures, high interest rates, exchange-rate uncertainty and developments in the global economy as key risks that investors should monitor.
He also advised investors to be selective rather than assume that every listed company would benefit equally from the market’s overall growth.
2027 Elections Could Influence Market Sentiment
The forthcoming general elections are another factor analysts expect to influence trading activity in the months ahead.
Amolegbe said political uncertainty could make some investors, particularly foreign portfolio investors, more cautious about committing funds to Nigerian equities.
Such concerns could lead to temporary capital outflows, increased volatility and profit-taking as investors assess the possible direction of economic policy under the next administration.
Nevertheless, he argued that a credible electoral process and continued policy stability could help preserve investor confidence.
Tajudeen Olayinka, a market analyst and investment banker, also expects the market to experience its traditional year-end rally, although the refinery’s public offering could temporarily delay the momentum.
He warned that uncertainty surrounding economic policies, including proposals to reverse existing reforms, could affect market activity as political campaigns gather pace.
Investors Urged to Focus on Strong Companies
Despite the positive forecasts, analysts stressed that market performance would depend on several factors beyond the refinery listing and election cycle.
Corporate earnings, inflation, interest rates, foreign exchange stability, domestic liquidity and global economic developments will continue to influence share prices.
While the projected market capitalisation and index levels offer an optimistic outlook, they remain forecasts rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Investors have therefore been advised to assess individual companies carefully, prioritising financial strength, sustainable earnings and reasonable valuations as the market approaches the end of 2026.
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